Rick, you are right, it is important to keep in mind what one considers "cheap" here for SFE - for me, it is firmly $3. However, I feel very confident that it'll bounce up from here - perhaps not very much higher, and not for very long, but technically, it really is ready for a relief run. In general, I'm fairly optimistic about the markets, especially January. After that, and certainly in late 2001, all bets are off. But for now, I'm preparing for a rally. Of course, if there is a flood of warnings by bellwethers... but overall, the market is oversold technically, IMHO. Sure, if A.G. cuts, it'll spark a huge one, but if he fails, I don't think it'll be a big negative for the market. I think most don't expect any FED action until next year.
Re: the CTO - it was public knowledge that he stepped down several days ago (see my Dec 8 post below), so while obviously it looks like a negative, I think it's been factored into the price short term. Longer term, maybe it does "smell", but I'm concerned with the short term for the time being.
Anyhow, you are right - caution is well advised!
Morgan |
