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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 694.04

+0.7%

Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: Stcgg who wrote (64353)	12/16/2000 12:10:17 AM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Stcgg--I agree that long term we are near the end of a big W4 March/Dec--My only quibble is that we haven't finished the C Leg yet----which as I see it is comprised of an 'abc' where the (a) part was a 5wave move down from 4260 to 2530ish, followed by a THREE wave (b) rally just above 3000 and now we are in the midst of (c)----The Fed mtg looming on Tues will likely keep the mkt near 2600-2700ish and then the disappointment at no rate cut will push the mkt below 2500 by say Dec22 (new moon and solar eclipse Dec25 btw, often key turning points).....fwiw, Don Hays in a note on Fri am said he is holding out for sub 2200 in a sharp panic move down from 2600 area before year end. I'm a little more optimistic and guesstimate 2350-2450and in fact will be alert to a bottom once the SOX breaks 500, INTC tests 30 (min sub 31.25), AMAT heads towards 35-36 (min sub 37.25)and MSFT breaks 45.

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