Financial analysis requires one to make assumptions. When the assumptions don't occur within the expected time frame, then the estimate will probably be wrong. That doesn't mean that the assumptions won't occur at a later date, or that the estimate won't eventually come to fruition. Many of the highest paid analysts from the most prestigious brokerage firms in the US are wrong too. Why don't you go hound them for a while because things happened later than they originally thought.
The prediction that you elude to was based on the following things happening, which I so stated at the time: release of a positive preventative clinical result for Zicam, publication of the therapeutic study for Zicam, publicity akin to what Viropharma received, international distribution of Zicam, finalization of a manufacturing agreement for dental gum, and dissemination of more information about the joint venture with Swedish Match. Only one of these things occurred within the time that they were supposed to occur, but that doesn't mean that the other things won't occur. When and if they occur, I stand by my prediction that GUMM will trade to at least $60.
At any rate, I scaled back that estimate many months ago after it was obvious that some of the things wouldn't occur within the time that I originally thought. Given your deceptive nature, it doesn't surprise me that you would pick an old estimate that I already scaled back considerably. I posted just a few days ago that if Gum Tech sells $20 million in dental gum and $30 million in Zicam in 2001, I think they will earn $1.11 per share and that the stock will trade to $30 to $40. I believe that this is a conservative estimate and it doesn't even give any value to the joint venture with Swedish Match which should add $10 to $20 to the stock if they stay on schedule.
You also failed to mention that I predicted that GUMM would trade to $32 to $35 by the end of 1999. I wrote then what I thought would have to happen for the stock to reach that point, and I was correct within a month or two. You don't have an honest bone in your body, and comments such as "knowing all the while that scum like you are LOSING MONEY HAND OVER FIST!" exemplifies what a low class "person" you are.
Stay short if you want. I believe that all the things in the first paragraph of this post will occur. If they do, you will give back what little profit you have and it will turn into a loss. Some of these things are occurring right in front of your nose but you are too greedy to see them. |
