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Technology Stocks : CDMA, Qualcomm, [Hong Kong, Korea, LA] THE MARKET TEST!
QCOM 163.32+2.3%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (221)6/27/1996 6:49:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn   of 1819
 
I don't think so. It just makes CDMA from Qualcomm and others that much more competitive. I suppose Qualcomm own the intellectual property rights on the chip design, so they will get a royalty on every chip made. But that probably replaces royalties they would have made on earlier chip designs which will now be in the trash.

The big question is how many, how fast, will they sell? This chip has upped the ante for competitors and Qualcomm's systems will be looking even more competitive. Of course the competitors are continuing to improve too, so I doubt it is a knockout punch.

On chip production capacity, one of the advantages of being a reputable and generous contributor to this thread is that I get a few emails from people who don't wish to publish because they work for related companies etc. I gather from some of those that production is being increasingly spread around semiconductor manufacturers and the number of handset chips needed is more than 5 million per year, starting 1996, not 1998. Qualcomm Personal Electronics own announced handset capacity is 4 million per year and there are many others with their own design, some now selling.

Qualcomm is continuing its policy of inclusiveness, so some very big supporters are jumping in to produce chips. Memory chips are in a bit of a hole and I think it was Texas Instruments recently cancelled a planned $2bn memory chip plant, so there will be lots of companies in the semiconductor business wanting to make Qualcomm's chips.

Your single unit multifunction communications and information management portable device is likely to be a big chip user. With Texas Instruments super efficient new chip design, all the necessary processes can fit into one funky little unit.

Sorry this isn't a bunch of numbers with $ per unit. I don't have that. But the whole field is moving so fast, any numbers are guesswork. The technology, direction, pace and politics [please excuse the bad language] are the main issues. Whoever gets it right will be dealing with several billion customers, so the dollars will flow pretty fast. The fastest mover is CDMA, the biggest seller is GSM.

I sound like part of the public relations department of Qualcomm!! Do you think I should send them a bill? They should at least give me a free trip to Hong Kong to try out the system. I can leave tomorrow if they make an offer. They gave Bill Frezza a Trenton phone. How about it Qualcomm?

Maurice
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