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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 248.42

-4.0%

3:59 PM EST

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From: John Trader	12/16/2000 5:08:03 PM
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Some very bearish articles out today: Upside Today: How the high-tech boom will bust: upside.com WSJ/Barrons subscription required for the following: Barrons: "1973 All Over Again" -- Interview interactive.wsj.com From the Interview: "Q: When should we expect a sustainable rally? A: We've got to cleanse the excesses and the bullishness and that could mean another 30%-40% to go. Q: But then it might be quite awhile before people get interested in stocks again. A: Right. That's why I'm fearful this is similar to 1973-74. Nasdaq in five years went from 1000 to 5100. If you drew a trendline from the 1994 low to 1998 low and extend it out, it is 1800. Don Hays may be right in his conclusions." I think the performance of AMAT over the next year or two will be almost entirely driven by the performance of the overall technology sector, which of course is closely related to performance of the overall economy. Many are starting to argue that we are going into a recession next year. The big question then is how bad/long is this downturn going to be. I wonder if anyone has any comments on this, particularly regarding the Upside article. Regards, John

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