Well, Mike, I think Tuesday is the critical point. If Mr G.
does not cut the rate, or does not swear on his honor to cut it in January we are dead. And I am with you all the way.
I think Mr G. can see the truth, but he has to convince the other ivory towered bankers on the board to act and thats questionable. They have had 10 years of bullish market and thinking and its really tough to change. This
season will be a financial disaster for stores (JMHO) and suppliers even if they sell the same $ amount as one year ago. But the bankers may not truly feel it until January or later when credit cards go unpaid, when stores ask for loan extensions.
In addition, with the NAs down 50%, if one adds in brokers fees, spreads, margin losses, and having to sell at
absolute lows due to margin- I rate the loss to a common
tech late-comer as closer to 80%.
That is not reflected in the Dow-yet, and it may appear
not-so-bad to a banker who uses it as a reference for the influence of past rate decisions.
If the Feds could stand up and say the truth, it would be
that the country cannot have the common investor or worker become millionaires just by investing for a few years. For one thing, that would cause inflation.For another, perhaps half the Msft workers would retire soon , and there is already a shortage of 800k workers in the field.
So I am half cash today, and on Tuesday I may be 75% cash
if they say the wrong words. One should never overate the
intelligence of the government- they probably have no idea of the total IRS refunds due to tech investors in April.
Which reminds to me unload tax-loss stocks before
December ends.
Regards, and thanks for your work
Sig |
