Have we reached a bottom for 2000??????
My research indicates that we have. The bond market is indicative of that with yields at their lows, and prices at their highs.
10 year treasury yield....http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?SC.web+$tnx
10 year bond price....http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?SC.web+$ust
30 year yield...http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?SC.web+$tyx
I'm seeing some divergence on some of these charts which is a very good sign that we have hit the bottom for now. The real bottom may not come until late 2001 or early 2002. This is still a VERY sick market, and will take years to flush out. However, that still doesn't mean that we will not rally for a month or 2. I expect to see a rally into mid-February with a target of 3700 maximum.
I also believe that there is a > 50% chance that Greenspan WILL lower rates 25 basis points. I believe, due to the PPI and the CPI. The CPI was artificially inflated due to Tobacco, and nothing more. Inflation is in check, and oil is @ a 4 month low. The time is right, and I think there's a good possibility this will occur. I am long in many issues, and will continue to hold through the meeting. The chances of us breaking new lows this year are slim and remote at this juncture. Trade tech for 2 months, then load the boat on Gold and Natural Gas on the long end, and short the tech sector again. I believe we will break our lows and possibly break the 2000 barrier. IMHO, Gold will have the mother of all squeezes by late 2001 and 2002.
KM |
