Ed, One thing I find fascinating is that every analyst, every trader, every individual will have their own opinion, and most usually those opinions will have facts to back up why such an opinion may end up ringing true. As for the markets, man it's getting crazy.....Read what 20 "experts" say, and you will get 20 different responses, each with excellent arguments backing them up.
I have come to the conclusion that nobody has any earthly idea what is going on. Too many people are trying to call this market to a tee, when I don;t think this is a possibility. Me, I think we are in a downtrend and heopeful bottom basing period. I don't know how low the bottom will be, nor how long it takes us to get there and base ( maybe we are there and basing now, maybe it wont be for awhile...who knows?? ). I also know that we are probably closer to a bottom to a top....and I only say probably because I have no idea and neither does anybody else. I base my statement on the fact that in the long run, we are likely to be higher....with that in mind, we are closer to a bottom. It could be twenty years before I am proven right, but I'll bet you 2 food stamps that in 20 years my point will be proven correct...we will be higher in 20 years. Anyway....what to do now? I am going to sell one or two thngs into the next rally to eliminate margin completely in case the doomsdayers are correct and naz 1800 is next. I will stay pretty much fully invested.....in hopefully the right companies, as I believe twenty years from now, these companies will be higher, and in case the other 50% is correct and we go up from here, I wish to be part of the rise. However, I believe I am going to start writing CC's and just take my monthly money and run....not worry about hitting a home run. I believe we are now using new baseballs which will eliminate many of the easy home runs we are used to. I'll buy quality, I'll cover, I'll take my money and run, or if we go down, I'll recover and at least make a tad on the downside.
Anyway, nobody knows what this market is going to do. I found reading all the analysts opinions only make you more emotional...more undecided. One guy says this and you can really see his points....next guy says opposite, and again, you really see his points. Crazy, crazy crazy......time to quite this stress and try and recoup some losses. I feel trading the swings would have been and still could be very profitable...buy the dip, sell after a few points and run....but also very stressful. I believe CC writing will be a decent, stress free means of maybe recouping some losses in the next year, when waters could be very choppy, or maybe not....but CC's at least are good to do In an up or down market. As I said earlier....I have not been writing cc's since spring because I keep expecting a bug rally...had I been writing all year, my losses would be far less and I would have a much lower cost basis on most every stock I own.
Crazy market!!
best,
Keith |
