Michael, the IV is a more accurate indicator of fear now. The VIX is price sensitive and due to various hedging strategies it is by now not as accurate as before.
Seasonally we are approaching a short term bottom. Inflation is receding in Europe and some structural financial changes are working their magic on the continent.
It is very possible that Europe will take the place of the engine powering the world.
AS to the US the political situation combined with stock over-valuation has brought this market to it's knees.
China India, SEA, CEE, and Russia will finally start to soak in tech products as prices have fallen substantially.
WS was betting on those developments to early and they will start materializing by next year reviving the tech sector.
If the US political scene will improve substantially US stock markets will follow.
Presently in the rest of the world, there is an environment of big disbelief and disapointment about the US democracy and the shadowy power brokers who brought Bush to power.
Those expression are in almost in every newspaper in Europe and Far East. I am not sure how many on SI read the Herald Tribune, The Telegraph, Die Welt, Die Zeit, LaSierra and others.
cnn.com
But the closeness of the Bush-Gore contest, the legal wrangles and
the length of time taken to determine a result have further damaged
a presidency already weakened by the impeachment proceedings
against Bill Clinton.
The new president will struggle to assert his
authority domestically, let alone on the
international scene. Outsiders will fear a
president with his eye from the start on
mid-term elections and in thrall to the focus
groups.
Despite the shower of congratulations now
flowing, and the angling for early
invitations to the United States to meet the
new man in the White House, the arrival in
the Oval Office of George W. Bush will
send tremors through Europe’s capitals.
Essentially it is a fear of the unknown.
Few European leaders have even met the
governor of Texas. None of them was
going to tempt providence by saying so, but
most had been hoping for a Gore victory
simply because many of them knew the
vice president personally, they respected
his knowledge of international affairs and
they liked the idea of continuity.
Now they will have to get to know Bush, a
man who has hardly ever travelled outside
his own country.
The second reason for alarm in European
capitals is that Condoleeza Rice, Bush’s
foreign affairs guru who is expected to
become his national security adviser,
suggested during the campaign that a Bush
administration would pull back U.S. troops
from worldwide peace-keeping duties.
............ British Prime Minister Tony Blair will be worried because he has
had a particularly close relationship with Clinton. They have jointly
made the case for “Third Way” politics, combining pro-business
policies, tough lines on law-and-order issues and social justice
measures.
Blair’s Conservative opponent, William Hague, is one of the few
Europeans who has travelled to America to meet Bush. Hague
openly backed Bush in the U.S. election and has openly adopted
some of his programme of "compassionate Conservatism." He will
be hoping for a payoff.
BWDIK
Haim |
