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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam

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To: DlphcOracl who wrote (7634)12/17/2000 3:39:57 PM
From: Walter Xie  Read Replies (2) of 13572
 
I think there are different issues at stake: How will the world economy perform? How will the stock market perform? How will your portfolio perform? (by the way, I'm more interested in the third question <g>. They are of course related but not exactly reflect each other timely and even logically short term. The first question is the most difficult to predict. It definitely is the most important one calling for answers. There are so many derailing factors seem to be converging. At least we should not ignore them. From the past year's experience, I dont see how the stock market worked as a discounting machine. It was actually a function of investor's emotional behaviors. It only become a discounting machine when investors become more rational, I guess. So I dont think any short-term rallies will tell you whether or not the bear market is over for good. I also think it is very dangerous to make long-term bet on any single company right now unless you are a harbinger in this extremely volatile tech world. Are we in the early stage of a bear market or the end of it?
I bet Fed will ease next tuesday. A balanced view supports it.
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