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Pastimes : Is anyone Bullish? Does anyone think the Fed will lower on

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To: McNabb Brothers who started this subject12/17/2000 5:55:13 PM
From: Montana Wildhack  Read Replies (2) of 37
 
Hank,

I'm not bullish.

I see Europe and Japan starting to slow along with the US
and see the stock market shrinkage as having a big effect
on consumer spending which is witnessed by the low sales
pre christmas.

I don't think we'll see anything other than a neutral
bias on the 19th. The oil and natural gas inflationary
pressures are still there, and a switch to lower rates
sends too fast a signal to the markets which are solidly
expecting the move to neutral.

The real threat as I see it is the huge current account
deficit the US has. If the slowdown is bigger than
expected, the foreign capital will move out and may force
Greenspan to move rates down more quickly.

I'm strictly in emerging small caps close to new revenue.

Good luck.

Wolf
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