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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 56.00

+8.5%

Dec 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: smh who wrote (2320)	12/17/2000 9:38:27 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) of 52153

In a month or two, Celera Genomics (CRA:NYSE - news) will publish the full human genome sequence -- and people will realize there are actually fewer than 50,000 genes in the human genome. (Lissa Morgenthaler at TSC). Yeah, right. The genes will all be colored gold - that's how we'll recognize them of course. The fact is that as far as I know there is no software out there (including CRA's) that will precisely and accurately identify all the genes. Thus the mere publication of the raw sequence (or even the annotated sequence) isn't going to settle anything. OTOH, I suspect she may well be right that HGSI has grabbed more of the land than others realize. Between HGSI and INCY, it's not clear how much room is left for CRA, at least on the pure gene patent side. Of course this begs the question of just how much any "bare" gene patent (no function known) is going to be worth anyhow. She also doesn't acknowledge that INCY's value is largely based on its contractual arrangement with its database subscribers, not on any gene patents they may have. My actual feeling (not based on much in the way of hard knowledge) is that single gene patents may not be worth that much. If you look at the microarray experiments (of the sort that RSTA does), you'll see that large numbers of genes turn on and off together in response to most stimuli. This implies (to my naive mind anyhow) that most genes work in concert with many others, and to really control the system you will have to understand and control very many different genes at once. (Of course there conceivably may be a few "master" genes of some sort tucked away that may prove enormously valuable.) If I'm correct, then a simplistic "count the gene patents and multiply by $x/per gene) isn't going to provide much valuation insight at all. Peter

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