Gst,
Someone asked a couple months ago what the lesson for the year was. IMO, it was don't fight the fed. The only thing that went wrong was the fed kept hiking and stayed tight all year, even in the face of rising energy prices.
They did this to crush the stock market. There was nothing else to crush.
Now they will try to assure us with words, when it is way too late.
"we stand a good chance of testing Naz 2000, and 1000-1100 on the S&P."
Absolutely. Of course, near term price action detached from reality about 18 months ago, so who knows what the hell is going to happen, besides Mark.
It is going to be almost comical after Tuesday because all our gov. reports are going to show a collapsing economy, and Asia is going in the crapper next. Europe never did get charged up. The comical part is that Greenspan's error is going to be obvious to everyone.
ALL the bearish bs can end soon as the fed moves. There is nothing going wrong that a fed with an IQ over 15 can't fix.
That is the problem. The fed must have sufferend a concussion in a y2k party. Some of my friends who have been around longer than me are telling me," they always over do it." I say no. They didn't in 1987; 1990's mistake was caused by the war; and they were near perfect in 94 and 98. This is already a doozy and the only thing that will save it are very strong words on Tuesday, along with an easing bias, and action before the end of January.
Since Alan is leaking that he will stay neutral, perhaps old Alan can ask himself this question: what would do more harm at this moment: easing 1/2 point....or raising 1/2 point....and then doing nothing for 1 year? |
