| MeD-- He knew,, many were shocked at the last 2 - 3 increases as the brake was on and still the only inflation was in his mind. IMO if you look deep you may see things get slightly different once Rubin left and there was no one to speak up when Big Al could be off base. Rubin made him think,,, no one else. Most guess he would have already dropped rates but the election got in his way and he would not even speak until he he was certain who the next pres would be,, made no difference to him,, he just would offer no means of influence... There is little talk of a 'soft landing' in economic circles for weeks. That has changed to "hard, semi hard, or recession?". It takes about 6 months for an increase to show an effect,,, lets dream he drops it Tues by 1/2 (impossible!) it would be May before anything could be attributed to it. Now get more realistic and think 1/4 in Jan,,, he NEEDS Rubin or someone else to force him into thinking about what he is doing as his inflation war is his fantacy. |
