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Pastimes : Is anyone Bullish? Does anyone think the Fed will lower on
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To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (2)12/17/2000 11:30:06 PM
From: Jim Willie CB   of 37
 
I agree totally with your thinking, but dont share your respect for the FedGovernors

they are a hidebound crosseyed bunch relying on old faulty constructs and methods

yes, energy higher prices have been earnings recessionary via tax proxy

money supply is key, imo
it has been rising slightly to offset the Fed tightening effect

it would be unprecedented to go from tight bias in Nov
to cutting even by 25bpt in Dec
I agree that Greenspoon's speech was a midterm move to neutral
if he planned to cut in Dec, he needed to go neutral prior

I hear half the govs are really concerned
but honestly, these guys are economic screwballs
they start with a premise and look to defend it until it is indefensible

first, they must lose their inflationary nonsensical premise
second, they must notice the threat to the economy
third, they must lose their pride
fourth, they must cut rates
(we are at stage #3 now)

I personally believe the best bet in the last four weeks was going long the Euro Futures contract
I spoke of it to RR on VoltPorch back in early Nov
when trading at 83
it is now 93
in futures terms, that is about a 400% gain

by the way, FedFunds Futures pegs a Dec19th 25bpt cut at 40%
/ jim
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