Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 247.01

-1.3%

10:03 AM EST

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To: swimmygoof who wrote (112886)	12/18/2000 12:34:35 AM
From: Alomex	Read Replies (1) of 164684

At $25/item, revenues should come in around $1.15 billion, plus or minus .05B. Losses will likely be contained (on a pro forma basis of course) to $70 million or less (0.20/share). Take out the France and Japan operations, and it will be a near breakeven quarter. I just don't see how Amazon can make $25/item on the average when it is including in the count all the Toys R Us items, for which only gets $2 to $6 bucks revenue... Last year's average price per item for Xmas was $18.60, if I remember correctly.... Toys R Us orders have a negative effect on the average price of about four dollars lower than what it would have otherwise been... Therefore assume electronics takes the average price to $25 (a generous assumption as most people give CDs as a gift, not TVs) and then substract four dollars and you get an average price of $21 for total revenues well below the $1.15 billion you forecast.... Don't forget that the ToysRUs deal will contribute handsomely to the bottom line, since AMZN is getting 5% profit on anything sold in that category, plus miscellaneous fixed fees. This wouldn't amount to much $15 million at most... This would be a drop in the bucket compared to actual losses last quarter (as opposed to fudged-over losses reported).

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