MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: J.T. who started this subject	12/18/2000 11:32:23 AM
From: Murray Grummitt	Read Replies (4) of 19219

DAILY PRICE PERSISTENCY From “STOCK MARKET LOGIC” by Norman G. Fosback; TWO DAY TREND AND MARKET PERFORMANCE (1965-1972) Market changes in NYSE TR Index Probability of Day 1 and Day 2 % Change Day 3 Rising Prices Up - Up + 0.21% 74% Down - Up + 0.24% 70% Down - Down - 0.25% 38% Down - down - 0.21% 38% 2,000 day average + 0.03% 58% “It appears that the longer the market moves in one direction, the greater is the probability that the next day will finally show a change in the opposite direction” While this data is clearly outdated its an example of the type of data I'm seeking. A source of more comprehensive data would be greatly appreciated. For example what is the probability of the market rebounding after going down 5 days consecutively? I imagine its pretty good! If anyone knows of a good source of data from someone who has studied market patterns and worked out daily probabilities please let me know! Thanks in advance, Murray Grummitt

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