RANDE.....ALERT.....Compounded 4DML
Rande...after seeing the action today, and thinking about this upcoming FOMC meeting tomorrow... I now fear that we may be in the midst of a compounded 4DML.. we already know about the gap up four days ago, so this selloff today was expected, but the strong gap up today leaves me seriously worried..
Bullish sentiment is still extremely high, and I seriously doubt we will get anything more than a loosening bias tomorrow,, which is already factored in because of Greenspans speech of earlier this month..
I may be getting overly fearful here, but this market has been selling all news, and making lower lows, and lower highs on almost all indexes and stocks for the last four months or so.... I think anything less than an actual rate cut may cause a selloff tomorrow...and I don't think we will get a rate cut..
All this being said, I may initiate long positions this afternoon, with the intention of selling tomorrow before the FOMC meeting. However, I will be out of these positions very quickly if I don't like how they play out. I may hold through the FOMC announcement if I am in a profitable situation, but if I don't like the announcement, or if it looks like a sell the news situation again,, I will be out immediately..
Also, we have only a few more weeks for tax loss selling, and I heard today on CNBC that the last four weeks have seen money flowing out of Mutuals.. Net Redemtions for the last four weeks if I heard right...Between tax loss selling, mutual fund redemtions, and the beginnings of earnings warning season, it seems to me that the risk reward here in the market leans way into the risk side..
just some thoughts
rok |
