>> Wow, Craig comes back after 10 months of semi-retirement, <<
Market sucks for 10 months so Craig don't play.
>> and predicts a 38% bear market rally :) <<
True, that is my prediction. Tomorrow I will put my money where my mouth is.
>> NDX reshuffled 12 stocks, and Friday was triple witching. So part of the 2.7 bil volume is probably related to those 2 factors <<
Yes, but does technical analysis care about the reasons? I think TA looks at the numbers only, and doesn't care how the 2.7 billion was achieved.
>> I still remember when u came back and posted in Oct 99, and how NAZ reacted in the next 5 months! <<
Somehow I don't think the Naz will put on 2200 points like it did last year. But I could see 900-1000 point rally over a few months. Even in 1929 after a sharp 49% decline the DJIA rallied back 50% over the next 5 months. Nikkei had a similar rally after dropping about in half. There is always a period where after a staggering decline there is belief that the Fed can magically fix everything with some eases. That's when you get the bear rally I'm looking for. Sometimes the Fed can save the day, sometimes the market turns down again after a few month rally. Take Japan for instance. They lowered rates like down to 1/2% and it couldnt keep Japan from sliding for ten years. The Fed tightened right up to the 1929 crash, then eased several times after the crash to try to save the day. Well it obviously didnt work. The DJIA ended up declining 89% before it bottomed and it wasn't until 1954 until it made new highs.
So to make a long story short, I do NOT believe Greenspan can save the day this time like he did in 1987. I believe this is more like Japan in '89 or the US in '29. I DO believe that other people think that Greenspan can save the day, and that is the pretense for this rally I expect.
So far everything is playing out perfectly in my mind. I don't want a big rally ahead of the Fed today and tomorrow. That sets us up for big disappointment. I want the market and everyone leaning the wrong way. That is when Greenspan likes to strike. His irrational exuberance speech took everyone by surprise. His emergency cuts in '98 took the market by surprise (well ok, he did leak it ahead of time). I wouldn't be surprised if he has something up his sleeve this time as well. The key is for the Nazdog to not be up 100 or 150 points tomorrow. If that's the case I will be much more cautious with my buying. If the market remains weak tomorrow though, and we get real close to that 2500 level, I will be an aggressive buyer of call options.
>> What were u the last 10 months? How's your life? <<
Oh, enjoying some of the spoils in life, letting the market work it's way lower. I think it's best to only trade between Oct through Jan or Feb. April through October seems to always be a tough time lately.
>> What's your bet on Greenie Tuesday? A neutral bias would kill any short term rally attemp. A minimum requirement would be biased to the ease side to take the market's fear. <<
I think Greenspan's going to surprise people and cut. I really do. I like that the techs are acting like they don't expect any cut. That means if I bet on a cut tomorrow and don't get it, stuff will be down enough where it might not have much further to go. (P.S. I'm not talking about the BRCM and BRCD's of the world, they have much further to go. I'm talking about "cheap" stocks like INTC, AMAT, SUNW (getting more reasonable now) etc.
I'm looking at INTC and SUNW calls. I would really like to see SUNW get hit another couple of points, because then I would be much more confident that MUCHO bad news is priced in.
>> Welcome Back to SI! <<
Thanks for the kind words. I'm looking forward to teasing HJ "Philip" Morris. Man, do I ever regret teasing him about buying MO at 20. Was quite a smart move. |
