FED TALK Message Board - Msg: 15044380

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (45)	12/18/2000 7:01:47 PM
From: Peace	Read Replies (2) of 94

Hi GZ, My expectation is we get no cut tomorrow but strong wording indicating they are ready to cut. Greenspan believes in moderation. On one hand we have a healthy although slowing economy which doesnt warrant a hasty action from the feds. On the other hand Greenspan is concerned about the slowdown in consumer spending. He did point to the stock market correction in his speech. Ordinarily Greenspan would like to see how the holiday season goes and cut in Jan. However, all the recent signs have pointed to weakness and the holiday season is looking awful to the retailers. This could be the only thing that may push them to spring a surprise. If they were to surprise, 25bp is all one can hope for. Anything more than that would spook the watchers in to thinking that the fed is panicking by going from a tightening bias directly to a huge cut implying we may be vulnerable to a recession here. So, I think we get an easing bias with no cut with some hope of a 25 bp cut. Peace

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