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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED
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To: Voltaire who wrote (25757)12/18/2000 7:55:32 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 65232
 
some predictions from the dark side, not made lightly:

- no rate cut tomorrow but neutral bias and lots of nice words
(like willingness to respond to deteriorating conditions)

- no rate cut in Jan30th meeting either, but easing bias
(near calamitous disappointment for markets)

we will get a Bush Backfire
his insistence on a tax cut will forestall rate cuts
and a contentious relationship will develop between Bush and Greensheiss

I think the economy will show some moxey and minor strength still
the Christmas spending season might be just ok to weak
I think a few economic stats will perk up as a last gasp

unemployment will not rise enough to suit Greensnot
the labor market has been his central focus for a long time

meanwhile, energy costs are coming down, and Greenslime will point to this as doing the job of a rate cut in January

and Naz will be about 2200-2350 in early February
even as we observe Q4 GDP in the estimated 1.9% range
but later revised to 1.7%
and small Asian economies teeter badly
and Telecom Bonds put entire national economies in jeopardy

Greenphlegm responds with a rate cut in March
after the stock market is in near panic
then Greenturd claims victory over inflation, the great threat

call me crazy
we overestimate The Grinch
he is getting old, getting sloppy, getting dumber
and his merry minion governors are utterly incompetent
this time he will put the entire world economy in jeopardy
/ jim
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