Hey Mike, don't you find it kinda strange that Dr. Richebachers fails to mention the demographics of the baby boomers in his analysis?
Boomers ARE "SAVING", but it's for retirement, not the short-term. They are throwing money into their IRAs and 401Ks, which employers are often matching to some extent each and every quarter, if not every month, into STOCK FUNDS, and they have been doing this for the past 10 years, ever since the kids finished college and they paid off the house (or refinanced it at lower rates in 1998).
Imo, the most reliable sign we'll have that the bull market in stocks is over, is when people position more more IRA/401K money in bond funds than they do in stocks.
I think that time will come, but we should have some time available to recognize the trend.
And he's right that the Japanese inflated the value of assets to such an extent that the crash that followed still lingers. But then again, they also endured a baby boom during the '80s, and those folks converted $12 Trillion of those inflated assets and socked them away in JGBs.
He may be right that we're in for a similar fate as the Japanese eventually, but just not yet, Imo.
Regards,
Ron |
