Mr. Pink,
I have much respect for the thoroughness of your due diligence on the companies you short. I would like to ask you, however, to re-examine the basis upon which you shorted Conseco. For example, the AM best downgrade has been reversed and the debt due by this year is constructively being reduced. Also, please correct me if I am wrong, but hasn't the company changed its accounting conventions to be more conservative?
Under Hilbert, I likely would have looked with negativity upon Conseco's prospects and agreed with your position. However, under Wendt, that 'death-spiral discount' applied to Conseco appears to be gradually diminishing as investors reconsider CNC's position from a 'stopping concern' into a 'going concern' once more. Wendt's track record is quite admirable.
Let me close by providing you some quotes from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, one of your favorite books, I believe.
"...It is not wise to disregard the message of the tape, no matter what your opinion...A speculator must concern himself with making money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape must agree with him."
For your consideration.
Rainier
Disclosure: I hold a position in Conseco. Under no circumstances is this to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. |
