Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: JRI who wrote (38373)	12/19/2000 12:39:36 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) of 42787

Hi JRI IMHO .. Tech sector is going to be just killed during earnings reporting season. Cross investments within the sector have not been factored into the warnings given out as of yet. We are in a slow grinding bear market. The question is whether or not we are about to have a sharp correction in this bear market. (read that as a strong spike up.) A couple of weeks ago I was expecting to see first a relief rally from the election stuff being resolved then a pre FOMC rally. OK .. so say that the election resolution was worth a +5 on the current slope .. the current slope being a -2 .. overlay a +5 for the pre FOMC run up .. OK that only leaves the impact of earnings on the market .. Earnings are still a question mark .. however, the impact of the expectations about earnings must be larger than the impact of election resolution and the FOMC pre run together. The only override I can see right now would be a surprise lowering from the fed. Now that folks are talking about it, it would no longer be a surprise. Relitive to the above scales I would put the expectations about earnings at about a -10 or more. I still have no handle on the impact of all the missed numbers that I expect. There is some very heavy weight on the market right now. The path of least resistance is down. IF we run up for the next couple of weeks, it should prove to be a very good point to purchase puts and unload stock. For myself, I put in a sell order on the 401k timed to move to fixed interest as of the close today. I'm expecting a "sell the news" kind of move tomorrow.

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