Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (47058)	12/19/2000 12:58:37 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) of 436258

FNM and FRE are currently regarded as safe stocks.Interest rates are going down, which will certainly lead to a booming refinance business, generating fees for them. Their refinancing costs are essentially coupled to T-bills because of the government guarantee. Since T-bills are very strong,i would assume their credit spread will increase a tad. The main reason, IMHO is that people regard real estate as a safe haven after the stock market crash. Real estate is still going strong here in the North bay, which proves the point <g>. I expect the real estate market to remain strong in CA, even though its the most overvalued - mainly because the labor market is still incredible strong. As Abelson mentioned in his writeup in Barron's, the labor machine is making some funny noises recently. This will crack the real estate boom, IMHO but first in the old economy areas and then in CA. Watch for hints of weakness in the real estate market and you know when its time to short.It may yet be to early, even though my trigger finger starts to get itchy... It may take some time till the real estate bubble bursts but it will be worth it <g>.

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