US underestimates China's threat
ASIA POWER BALANCE: Analysts warned that
the US should take China's territorial ambitions
in Asia seriously and argued for weapons sales
to Taiwan
By Nadia Tsao
STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON
China experts told the House Armed Serices Committee on
Wednesday that the US should not underestimate the capacity
and willingness of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) to
prevent American intervention in regional crises.
The warning appears to fly in the face of the Clinton
Administration's argument that the technological level of China's
defense industry is far behind that of the US and comes at a time
when the Senate is preparing to vote on granting China
Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR).
China's recent transfer of missile technology to Pakistan and the
deal on the Phalcon early warning system it tried to make with
Israel -- that was later cancelled -- have contributed to a growing
wariness on Capitol Hill of the potential danger posed by China.
Yesterday's warning came just a day after Russian President
Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Jiang Zemin jointly
denounced what they see as US attempts to dominate the world
order, and agreed to stand together against American power.
Congressman Floyd Spence, chairman of the House Armed
Services Committee said during the hearing on China's military
capability that the administration's latest report to Congress on
Chinese military capacity acknowledged that China sought to
become the pre-eminent regional power in East Asia.
"However, the administration appears to take a more forgiving
view of China's military potential ... and the challenges it poses to
US security interests than I believe is warranted," Spence said.
He emphasized that China's military threats, and its buildup of
ballistic missiles arrayed against Taiwan, "should be taken
seriously."
Though there is robust opposition from China against the US
National Missile Defense program, the short-term flash point
worries US lawmakers and observers in Taiwan.
"The PRC is not today the enemy of the United States, but the
PRC's territorial and political ambitions in Asia, and resources it
is devoting to building its PLA into an advanced fighting force,
dictate that the US exercise great caution," said Richard Fisher a
fellow of the Jamestown Foundation think tank.
The foundation argues that there is enough evidence to conclude
that the PLA is rapidly shifting the balance of power on the
Taiwan Strait, and laying the foundation for greater power
projection in the next decade and beyond.
Fisher pointed out that there were already 400 ballistic missiles in
the area opposite Taiwan, and it was reasonable to estimate that
the PLA could have 1000 or more ballistic and cruise missiles
aimed at Taiwan by the end of this decade, a number exceeding
previous US estimates.
"Today Taiwan has sufficient strength to deter a PLA attack, but
that may not last for long," stated Fisher saying that the danger lay
in the absence of sales by the US of defensive weaponry to
Taiwan."
He urged the US government to sell submarines and other
advanced weapons to Taiwan.
Fisher's arguments received support from June Teufel Dreyer,
professor at the University of Miami. She told the committee that
"the administration has sought to deny or minimize the import of
indications that the government of the PRC is making steady
advances in the modernization of its military and regards the US
as its enemy."
She indicated that although there was no certainty that the PRC
would become a major power in the foreseeable future, that
Chinese threats on matters of sovereignty and irredentism must
nonetheless be taken seriously, she said.
Dreyer criticized the recent Pentagon report to Congress for its
assumption that all fourth-generation fighter planes in Taiwan
were equal. She said that 130 of Taiwan's 400 planes were
Indigenous Defense Fighters whose abbreviation, IDF, had been
rendered "I Don't Fly" by the Taiwanese themselves because of
problems with the aircraft.
Bates Gill, director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy
Studies at the Brookings Institute, argued that improved missile
capabilities answered a number of questions for Chinese forces
both with regard to a Taiwan scenario, and with regard to
improving their nuclear weapons capabilities.
"China appears to be devoting increased resources not to an
invasion scenario, but to an intimidation and perhaps an area
denial strategy," he said.
Gill stated that the US should continue to equip Taiwan to defend
itself against potential Chinese coercion, especially with regard to
possible missile attacks.
"Providing lower-tier, land-based missile defenses to Taiwan is
entirely appropriate," he said, adding, however that,"other
follow-on sales of more capable missile defenses should await
further study of their diplomatic and military-technical
implications |
