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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: GuinnessGuy who wrote (36789)12/19/2000 8:42:30 AM
From: Bruce Brown  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
I'm not sure I agree with the above statement. BRCD already has something like 90% of the switch sales. There's just not much more market share to eat away at.

They have 60% of the overall FC switch market. That's up from 30% one year ago.

Also, the fastest growing segment of the market is forecasted to the in the director class switches where BRCD has yet to demonstrate a viable product. They have also yet to demonstrate a 2 gig/sec fibre channel switch. Maybe they will be get both of these two deficiencies corrected in time for the market, but in the not too distant future their backs will be up against the wall without these offerings.

By what forecast? That's the key. I guess that's why you had 90% of your portfolio in Ancor before QLogic made the acquisition. Has the market place even demanded the 2 gig/sec switch yet? Who is shipping product? Why is the market embracing the looped switches vision of Brocade as opposed to the director class? Is the market wrong? Brocade has announced two larger port switches and certainly will be focusing on providing what the end customer is demanding. Likewise, I imagine their R&D is quite focused. Brocade has made a point not to announce future technologies even though they are working on them. Does this mean their back is up against the wall?

And the stock is priced for perfect execution.

Name some dominant technology stocks that are not priced for perfect execution. In your review of the last 9 quarters of Brocade's execution, have you found any failed execution? If they weren't executing, they wouldn't be priced like they were.

BB

P.S. Ciena to acquire Cyras.
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