However, the thing to keep in perspective is that IDTI is well positioned in many of the most exciting semi growth areas - areas that are seeing robust growth despite the so-called threat of recession.
From Semiconductor Business News:
"Semiconductor Alert! (Dec. 11-15)
Commentary & analysis of week's chip news
By Robert Henkel
Semiconductor Business News
(12/15/00 20:16 p.m. EST)
Greetings from Down-East Maine--Big party today for our village's children--all 80 of them. Santa is coming in this afternoon--but in our fire truck rather than by sleigh. We're holding get together at our local 120-year-old church, now the Robbinston Historical Society, which is located next door to my home on the Bay of Fundy. The weather is cooperating: four-inches of fresh snow and a clear, sunny day. And the roads are clear. Hope you too are enjoying the holiday season. You'll probably notice that much of the news came out of two meetings this week--Sedona, Ariz., and San Francisco. We had reporters at both events--an indepth briefing by STMicroelectonics and the annual IEDM meeting.
At least one expert is
optimistic about 2001
One leading industry seer is still optimistic about chip sales next year. I do think he's one of our best--but where's he coming from?
Jean-Phillipe Dauvin, chief economist at STMicroelectronics, predicted this week that the global industry will grow at around 27% next year. That's higher than any forecast I've seen so far for next year. But Dauvin is upbeat about 2001 because of exploding demand for cellular phones, networking equipment, and set-top boxes. "We even expect a rebound in PCs," he declares.
The key driver, he says, is communications. The worldwide communications chip business will grow nearly three times over five years--from $32 billion in 1999 to $85 billion by 2004, Dauvin predicts. One important sector here is wireless handsets. This year the market will grow from 285 million units last year to 435 million in 2001, he says. And next year should see this growth continuing. "We could see 600 million units being shipped in 2001," Dauvin estimates. "That's the upper end of the projection." That's an amazing number--in fact I find it hard to believe.
Dauvin is not as optimistic about the outlook for the semiconductor industry's capital expenditures and is more in line with other forecasts. But he still sees sales going up. "We see only 5% to 10% growth [in 2001] in terms of capital expenditures," he predicts. The STM economist expects capital spending this year to run $55 billion, a 65% increase over 1999. " |
