Here was a short discussion I had back in late October, 2000. There was some discussion about how low the NASDAQ Comp could/would go. I put my guess at 1,800 within two years, and was met with this reply (message 235 of this thread).
Oh, you do that. Go ahead. Tuck your money under the mattress until we reach Nasdaq 1800 within two years. Don't worry that the long-term TL is between 2700 - 2800:
And this chart was offered as this writer's support:
home.talkcity.com
The NASDAQ Comp stood at 3,229 at that time. The 3,000 level was breached. Now support at 2,523 was breached. That long-term trend line has been demolished. Despite this, people I know are very complacent. Someone, Tommaso I think, posted a few days ago that this market is not climbing a wall of worry, it is slipping down a slope of complacency. The climax selling, I think, will occur when this complacency turns to fear of losing everything. After that round of selling which I think could take the NASDAQ below 1,800 and the DJIA below 6,000 (downside guess 4,000) can we begin rebuilding the long-term uptrend.
Just my thoughts,
Erik |
