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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners
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To: GST who wrote (4252)12/19/2000 6:22:41 PM
From: Bill Harmond  Read Replies (2) of 57684
 
No kidding. Of course not, but that's 20:20 hindsight. This was the worst year in nearly 30 to employ this strategy. There is no fundamental reason for this drawdown. The financial background is more stable this year than it was during the last Fed tightening in 1997 when nothing of magnitude happened. Siebel (which was young, untested, and I think still operating in the red) went from 40 to 13 or something. It was nothing like this. Forget your oil crisis, GST, 1997 had the worst collapse of bond prices since the depression.

The Web has been demonized. It's hillarious to me. The true believers are facing the first bout of fed tightening, there are excesses in CLEC's etc, some over-ordering of components earlier, the important transition away from PC as the defined center of internetworking, etc., but The New Economy is simply not drying up and blowing away. An industry is defined by its talent and capital, and there is still plenty of both. The non-believers are still wagging their fingers, and I bet they'll regret not taking their second chance.

My wife and I were talking the other night how Yahoo is up 6x over our original investment. You can't tell me that Yahoo's franchise isn't worth many times more than 6x what it was in the Spring of 1997 when no one even knew who the leading portal would ultimately be...forget globally.
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