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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 677.56-2.0%Jan 20 4:00 PM EST
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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (64703)12/19/2000 8:13:25 PM
From: Gary Burton  Read Replies (3) of 99985
 
George--I think he suggested the market to trough within next 10days or so from last Fri am.--ie likely by Dec 26--with minimum COMP of 2200 and could break 2000-----My 2c is that we are going to trough by Dec 22 latest somewhere near 2200-2450ish, take your pick. I know you don't do Elliott but fwiw, from the 3030ish peak, we are likely in the 5th subwave down--and of such 5th, we have EITHER completed (iii) at today's low give or take a few pts, with a small bounce back towards 2540ish for (iv) and then one final move down to near 2450ish to complete the entire sequence----OR-- subwave 3 of the 5th is going to extend from the getgo tomorrow morning and touch a minimum 2440 (or lower) before rallying and then falling one last time towards the 2300 area.----Either could happen with about equal liklihood.....I think Don is going to be left at the alter if he is waiting for sub 2200....but his hunch was sure on target!!. I sold all but one of my stocks just before the Fed mtg and plan on building towards 100% long by Thurs am latest...maybe as early as tomorrow..For the fib types, notice that the %drop from the B Wave top of 4260 Sept1 into the 'old' low of 2530ish was Dn41% and so taking .618 of that % drop and applying it from the recent 3030ish retrace peak would measure to about 2260ish I think.....That new moon cum solar eclipse on Dec25 suggests a low by the earliest on Thursday --don't ask me why, but key turn dates have matched up uncannily near new moons over the past many months.
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