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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: Stephen who wrote (38491)	12/19/2000 10:16:43 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 42787

Good Point Stephen. I addressed that in my post tonight as one thing I fear for tomorrow. Other than that and the obvious FA problems, I show everything seriously over sold and we are pretty over sold on the weekly charts now too. I wouldn't want to be short but it is pretty dangerous going long too. Here is what I posted on our site......... >>Jcav - Great point!! Honesty in reporting is not high from broad and wall. Now unfortunately I have to somewhat reverse my position as I just finished the charts that are posted here and many of the tech charts are very over sold and indicators are pointing to a bounce. I think Don did well by buying into the long profund at the close as we seem to be a bit overdone. I still think FA wise we are toast but Indicators says we are due for a bounce and it could be big. The candles look horrible so I don't know if we are going to have a hammer, a tweezer two days from now or what but something should happen soon. The big fear here now is Margin. Will today's posting of new lows and the rapid decent keeping many from getting out in time trigger massive margin calls? I found it strange that the indexes weren't actually lower. Looking through the charts so far, I am seeing real carnage in the high flyers. There must be 20 techs out there that fell at least 20 points or more and there were a slew that dropped 10-50%. If we have a hard down day tomorrow, I will likely sit by and watch but then will move into the long profunds. If we bounce during the day, then I plan on going long the QQQ again and/or moving into my favorite speculative play as it was strong today until the closing bell. This is a very dangerous time as we are oversold yet FA is horrible. I read the shorts are getting nervous and the longs are starting to wonder if this will never end. We are probably getting close to that capitulation point as gauged by my talks with fund holders at work. I saw some real anger on SI tonight too. My only concern was that the VIX wasn't that high and the put call was only around 76. Futures are reading about flat but the Bias as shown is actually down about 7 points so unless we are up that much in the morning, the open should be down. Let's hope it gets nasty and we finally see the dip buyers back off so we can find a floor. We are getting close to my NDX 2275 and SPX 1275 target. I have the NASDAQ already near my 2400 line thus we will likely over shoot that one. The DOW remains a pillar of strength but valuations there are a bit high now as well with KO and PG getting a bit silly. Note how many financials are warning yet refuse to fall. PG is still straddling the forks refusing to let me know which one to pick. The CAT, IP and AA charts are actually starting to look like consolidations and could break higher though so will there be a move to cyclicals next as Terry asked on SI? This is going to be a nail biter as my technicals are saying to buy but CSCO, SUNW, EMC, PMCS etc are all making new lows. I will be giving my charts an extra run through and will be looking hard at my indicators to see if I am missing something. I don't want to be catching falling knives since that is dangerous work and not for the faint of heart. If dipping, use stops and stick to them!!!! Remember that the bounces in a selloff are usually just fib retraces and there is a high risk of another fall quickly there after. Good Luck, Lee

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