NEW YEAR'S RESOLUTION
Everyone,
My New Year's resolution is going to result in more work for you and less work for me. How do ya like it so far? :)
Seriously, I've got a tendency to look up boat loads of information before trying to answer rather open ended questions and very often when answering some very pointed questions too. As of next year, I resolve that when you ask me questions about this or that, I will ask that you make a valid attempt to provide the basis for the concern if not a reasonable response to the question.
We can posit that there might be many reasonable responses to the question. It's not important that we agree that any particular response is accurate. But it IS important that we gradually learn how to do the homework necessary to decide for ourselves which answers are the best ones, and more importantly, which questions are the best ones. Otherwise we become no different than the so-called investors who sell a stock because an analyst downgrades it or buys the stock because an analyst upgrades it.
There will be times that you want an answer to a question but don't know how to find the information that might answer it. Not a problem. I'm happy to point out how I would try to find the answer and will ask that everyone explain where they would look that might be different from the way I would do it. But I'm going to ask that you do the work and look up the information before we seriously discuss it. Fair 'nuff?
So let's practice! :)
Beginning with seldom blue's concerns and certainly not picking on him/her. Just the opposite, the concerns are GREAT! ...
SEBL still sports a high PE.
Be more specific, please. Relative to what and why? What is the PE excluding one-time charges and what price is it based on? Until I know the details of your thinking, I might think the PE is a lot higher or lower than you do.
Would you say this slowing growth may indicate SEBL's tornado is subsiding a bit?
What slowing growth? How fast is it slowing? In the top-tier market or the mid-tier market? In licensing revenue or service and maintenance revenue? Is it the slowing growth implied by the article you provided that concerns you? Is the info in the article accurate? What insights about that are provided in Siebel's quarterly press releases and SEC statements? In other words, please be a lot more specific so we have a reasonable point of departure from which we can begin an informative, enjoyable discussion.
The effect of corporate spending slowdown should be very pronounced on SEBL, who depends on these corporations having the money to buy.
That's true for any company if it comes to pass. However, sometimes we don't know that a company's slowing growth is truly attributable to customers having less money to spend. I remember that last quarter a slew of companies reported suffering sales supposedly due to a weak euro. That very same quarter Siebel blasted through all that by reporting the best quarter in Europe they've ever had, measured by both dollar volume and percentage of increase.
But as I mentioned recently, it's inevitable that eventually there will be a recession though I've never invested during one. Imagine a scenario in which you're the CEO of a company that has to scale back its spending budget. What's the last category your going to trim -- the administrative budget, the marketing budget, the R&D budget or the budget for front office software that helps you acquire and keep happy customers?
Seldom, I look forward to hearing from you about these issues that are critical to the degree of Siebel's success. If you're willing, thanks much for letting me practice my New Year's resolution beginning with you.
--Mike Buckley |
