IMO, the risk premium in most nasdaq stocks not only doesn't reflect the uncertainty of your "we'll see" assumption as it pertains to company specific risk, but also ignores it as it pertains to market and macro risks...because the latter were not considered on the way up, the former never mattered either, just buy a hot sector like comm. chips or optics...but what will happen when it matters, like now? I guess we will see...
for example, I wonder if most people buying say STLW, would even be able to tell it apart from OCPI, OPLK, FNSR, CORV, CIEN, JDSU, HTEK, etc. if they were only given the company descriptions? And I wonder if they also think that maybe they shouldn't be buying stocks at all right now, especially any of those. So which of those will survive? And since nobody can answer this, why are they priced as if they will all survive and prosper? These are rhetorical questions but I think you get my point...of course this is what investing is all about, but buyers are taking pretty bad odds right now (historically speaking and logically as well) without seeming to realize it, don't you think? |
