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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.87-0.1%3:59 PM EST
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To: Dan3 who wrote (22918)12/20/2000 2:37:41 AM
From: Charles RRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Dan,

<He priced the 1.2GHZ parts "too low" so AMD has been selling out of their most lucrative parts ..>

To me it seems amply clear that AMD is not producing too many 1.2GHz parts. And, I think the Q4 unit guidance tells why that is the case.

At the current sell through rate it is safe to say Dresden ramp is drastically cut down and that limits the chance of AMD producing too many high MHz parts.

I have given up on AMD MHz ramp after Q4 guidance. I don't think Athlon MHz will ramp that much until the entire Athlon production moves to Dresden. i.e., the total units should jump substantially or a good part of Fab25 should move to flash.

<Two years ago, Jerry risked everything to expand AMD FAB capacity when Intel was putting projects on hold - and he was right. >

This is a tough case to make given all the blunders AMD made in the last 12 months. At 7Mu level, AMD hardly needs Dresden.

Chuck
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