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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?
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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (4178)12/20/2000 2:38:07 AM
From: muckraker71  Read Replies (1) of 6974
 
In looking at my notes from the Q3 con call, North American lic rev growth was 83% for the qtr. Based on the numbers given, I wasn't able to determine that core domestic enterprise growth was 60% in the quarter.

In other words, how does Thill come up with growth rates for both Siebel's enterprise and Siebel's MME segments in the N. Amer. market? It's not possible to know this unless Thill knows the ratio of MME license revenue vs. enterprise license revenue in North America. If you had this number, you could derive the MME growth rate and the enterprise growth rate by knowing the combined growth rate in North America of 83%.

But we are not given this ratio within North America; we ARE given the ratio company-wide, which (from my notes) was 27% in 3Q00 vs. 25% in 2Q00. But it is not prudent to assume that the company-wide ratio of 27% applies to each geographical region equally, as each region is in a different state of market maturity.

I even tried speculating on some of these ratios to try and come up with an enterprise growth rate in North America. But there simply is not enough data for the equation; I end up making assumptions that could radically change the number in question.

TD, as to the cancer which infects Siebel, I agree it's terminal, but I think the patient has at least 4 quarters left before we put this firm on the respirator.
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