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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.25

+0.9%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (40955)	12/20/2000 8:18:27 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) of 70976

The pall over this market is almost unbearable. I dont believe this will end up being the worse year since 1971 so i am expecting some sort of rally starting today. Your guess is as good as mine whether it sticks in the new year. I reread the Fed announcement and it is a big step going from anti-inflation posture to anti-recession mode. I think the CNBC boys had something to do with the market's dashed expectations of an actual rate cut occurring yesterday. However, I do believe the Fed will move prior to the next meeting and perhaps by 1/2%. Many analysts as well as former fed members were aggressively calling for an immediate lowering. It seems to me we are in a two-three week cycle here and after the christmas numbers are digested we should get some action my 1/10 or so. As far as amat goes, its behaviour continues to be that of building a base. I realize any big market blowoff can cost us dearly but even in that scenario I would look for the chips to lead the nasdaq back. After all, how low can they go. We have exactly the opposite mentality of last Christmas. Last Christmas euphoria was extended by Y2K euphoria when the lights didnt actually go out. With the absence of real disasters, perhaps this existing gloom will dissipate with the new year. As an aside I heard one analyst yesterday telling folks to sell tech and move into financials in one breath while predicting nasdaq 4500 for 1/1/2002 with the other. He said that although dow would make new highs at 11,5 or so(10%) nasdaq wouldnt get near its old high. But he forgot to mention that 4500 from here is just short of a double. Anyway I will go back to lurking here for the next few weeks and decide when, if and where to bonus money to work.

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