MB, I hope you are wrong about AG. I'd like to hear the bulls castigating him for a while. But who can trust the guy?
I sure do wish you or someone would analyze the Dow Leaps situation. Essentially, for $2500 as of yesterday you could buy the right to sell the Dow at 14,000 as of December 2002. Subtracting the premium, that would be the right to sell it at 11,500 and break even. That means for every Dow point below 11,500 in December, 2002, you would make a dollar. So if the Dow hit 8,000 you would be up $3,500.
I guess that's not your kind of odds. And I guess I have talked my own way through it. But I am comfortable betting that the Dow will be well below 11,500 some time between now and December, 2002. Indeed, from my point of view, the put is already well into the money. Someone is sure willing to gamble on the Dow being above 11,500 in 2002, and they could be right. But it may not look that way a year from now. |
