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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.97

+0.1%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Jay Baca who wrote (64759)	12/20/2000 11:34:02 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Jay Baca: We could and likely will see some follow through selling through the end of this week. I would not try to catch falling glass unless you are quick and nimble and so is your brokerage. I am being more cautious than planned as my high speed net access went belly up yesterday...<ng> It is likely that the NAZ and NYA will extend this decline, but not a given. It depends on the big boy's intention. The NYA is grappling for support at the 12/01 pivot low while the NAZ is bobbing right in the middle of the 99 rising consolidation that followed the Oct 98 blast off and preceded the lift off in late 99 providing the final bubble expansion move. Short to medium-term buy points are coming into range. I think my cycle pivot date yesterday is targeting a short to medium-term low. It has been fairly accurate since this bull began. However, I am some what cautious as the cycle has yet to be proven in a "recent" prolonged down turn. The remaining late nineties mania players need one more big lure followed by a decline that takes them down for count to squeeze the last of the speculative fever out. I painted this scenario early last year. I doubt this bull will end with just one decline. It is better to "play it safe" in a market like this than to be sorry... Regards, LG

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