Cyrix 1 Where anything goes Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Cyrix 1 Where anything goes

CYRX 8.515

-8.1%

Nov 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Frank P. who wrote (490)	5/31/1997 1:08:00 PM
From: Investor A	of 640

Frank, Good morning and happy weekend for you and your family! I plan to buy more INTC shorts (JUL & OCT) next Monday for the following reasons: 1. Intel is a "Proud" company. If the sales were not so bad for the first two months of Q2, Intel won't issue the earning warnings 30 days before Q2 is over. I have the feeling that the situation is more worse than they "would" admit. When INTC was 130s, the company released all bull messages to put up its own stock price. The much worse than expections is too deep for them to cover now. The Friday warning is the first patch. More bad news are to be disclosed (without emphases! of course) for analysts to dig out the real problems! 2. The yields and sales of Pentium II are much worse than Intel could dream of. In yield, the original plan was to release PII-200 & 233 at debut. K6-233 gave Intel no choice but throwing away these (inferior) 200Mhz and cherry picking the 266Mhz version. Under this situation, the yield on PII must be as low as 25% of their original plan. As to the sales, PII floating flaws were not expected when they project earning early this year. Without a commitment to replace these defected Ppro and PII, end users are not to spend 4K to upgrade their current systems for a defected one. I have talked with a few people asking if they would spend 3K to upgrade to the bugged PII. Everyone of them said that they are not so stupid to do that! I would suspect that most of the recent PII shipments are idling on OEM shelf, not ended up on users' desktops. DAN is quite an Intel killer! If this was the case, Intel might encounter sales problems to meet their 7 MM PII for Q3 and Q4 target. Any indicate showing this user resistance towards PII will plunge INTC at least 30 points intraday. Intel investors have to pray daily wishing it won't happen in the next 8 months. 3. Margin eroded greater than planned. We discussed this before that Intel increase greater discount towards tier one OEM to keep them from adopting K6 and MX. I have the feeling that the next Tuesday analyst meeing will be another nightmare for Intel investors. Hehehe, time to protect my CYRX investment. :)) Fuchi

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