VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Voltaire who wrote (26299)	12/20/2000 2:21:23 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) of 65232

timing of economic bottom, stock bottom May 50 bpt rate hike beginning to be felt, not fully add 7-10 months for that final unnecessary kick in the economy's nuts that is Dec to Feb timeframe but deterioration is likely to feed upon itself the backside post-Y2K phenomenon dictated its own pullback the decline in Naz wealth effect dictates its own spending pullback Fed has been exceeding the 3month TBill yield by 30-80 bpts for about six months now that amount of braking is unprecedented in our modern history therefore the economic fallout will likely continue into about April or May I expect flat to negative Q1, Q2, and Q3 tech stocks should rock into bottoms just before or somewhat after the first Fed rate cut something like Jan15th or Feb15th it will become apparent that 50 bpt in Jan will be sadly insufficient and more declines come afterwards that first Fed rate cut I say Naz bottom in Feb sometime, 6 months before economy revives in August-September Naz price at bottom: 1850-2100 Fed has possible unemployment target of about 4.5% now 4.0% / JW

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