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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Henry Volquardsen who started this subject12/20/2000 2:58:44 PM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (3) of 3536
 
Hi everyone.

I see there hasn't been much activity here and I don't think I've posted on this thread in 9 months. But things are getting so interesting that I thought maybe we could strike up a discussion.

From my point of view, the U.S. economy is heading over a cliff. Now maybe that sounds too disastrous, I guess what I'm saying is that we could be looking at a sharp little recession early next year. My reasons are.

Capital spending is being curtailed after an extraordinary period of growth. The is so because profits are under pressure and capacity is ample.

Inventories have grown in the face of slackening demand and are likely in for a period of liquidation.

Consumer spending is in for pullback after several years of unsustainable growth levels the result of falling joblessness and boom in the stockmarket. Now that these two forces are reversing, we could have a sharp reversal in spending.

I believe the Fed is about to ease, despite their refusal to do so yesterday. Maybe even before their late January meeting and maybe by a half a point. Every day that the market falls increases the chance they will act.

I also believe that we will see global interest rate declines over the next 6 months. In the US we could see the Fed Funds rate around 4% by mid year.

Finally, I think the US dollar is in for a much needed drop especially against the Euro.
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