Yes, I have worked for Sprint twice as a consultant and once as an
employee. I did two seperate stints in Reston and one in KC. There
are not too many Lehenkys in the US. Where do you know me from?
As far as SYSF goes, I think you must differentiate short-term versus
long-term performance. In the short-term, SYSF came in with $0.0752
per share, the consensus was $0.08, and at least one large house was
looking for $0.09/share. SYSF missed expected revenue by 4%. The
short-term game is all built upon expectations, not absolutes. In
absolute terms, you are correct, SYSF had a good quarter year-to-year,
but they failed to meet, or better yet exceed, the numbers projected
by the analysts. This resulted in immediated negative reactions from
the analysts; H&Q downgraded SYSF to a hold, and the other guy stayed
with a buy, but lowered his revenue and earnings estimate for this
year. That doesn't mean we all think SYSF is going down the shitter!
It means that SHORT-TERM, the stock is not likely to go up much,
unless additional news is released. Long-term, SYSF looks like a good
pick, but with the quarters coming in the way they have recently, the
question becomes: When? Remember that there are a lot more short-term
players in the market than there are long-term investors, so these
quarterly events are not to be taken lightly. I, too, believe SYSF
will hit $20/share, but I don't think it will be next week, or next
month, and only maybe after next quarter, if SYSF beats their numbers.
This all changes in a heart beat if SYSF makes a major announcement
about a new OEM agreement next week, but that is pure conjecture.
-Dave Lehenky |
