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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2631)	12/20/2000 5:09:33 PM
From: X Y Zebra	of 3536

Thanks for push starting this thread. My observations of the way the stock market has been behaving plus what I have seen in the past when real estate prices reach certain levels... some sort of recession follows. I have taken steps that would shield me from a recession where it pertains to real estate (industrial stuff). If this is the case... and please note emphasis on the IF... This will be the second time around that I have been able to dodge a potential bullet. The first time, there were no "evident" sign of such event, at least not in the area where it was relevant for me. This time around, as we speak, even new construction seems to be coming on line, and vacancy rates are low. What is different in this instance is that the amount of regulation to overcome a "permit process" is longer than before (now 18 to 24 months) before new construction becomes ready for occupancy. This in a way may be somehow protective of existing space given that to reach "excess of available space" takes longer time. Unless of course, the coming slow down is nastier than expected. The fact that MSFT has taken steps to cut costs is telling. We shall see in the coming months how this, for now, potential recession turns out to be. One thing I am liking already is that lower interest rates are coming. For those with cash and little or no debt, some interesting deals could be in the horizon.

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