To: JRI who wrote (38701)
From: Paul Shread Wednesday, Dec 20, 2000 4:32 PM ET
Reply # of 38729
How do you measure a panic bottom in techs, when the traditional measures (VIX, PC ratio) are targeted at the S&Ps? I also think people looking for a panic bottom in this market could miss the bottom when it does occur. This has been a slow, grinding, old-fashioned bear market, not a panic like '87 or '98. Even '90 was a short, sharp sell-off, with a high in August and a low in October, if I recall correctly. A better measure might be '81-'82; what were the indicators like in August '82? S&P lost 24% in that bear, I think, so even that might not be a fair measure.
The bottom line is we closed on a line with the last two major Nasdaq sell-offs, 1994 and 1998. A good bet for a rally, with a retest in January, IMHO. |
