<< Had the NT/GLW deal gone through, it would have created an optical juggernaut with annual sales of more than $3b, twice the size of JDSU (Bloomberg, 11/27/00).>>
Is that $3 billion for photonic components alone?
GLW will have $7.1 billion in total revenue for 2000, around a billion in photonics (100% y-to-y) and 2.5+ billion in fiber and cable (70% y-to-y), and is projecting $9.1-9.2 billion total for 2001.
Regarding bandwidth glut and cap ex issues, Wendell Weeks, President-Corning Optical Communications, addressed that in his presentation to analysts on 12/14/00. He pointed out that new generations of optical systems had considerably lower oprating costs compared to older systems. While there is a lot of dark fiber out there, many operators are finding that it is cheaper to install new equipment than to light old equipment. He cited a real world example of a comparison between an older system and one using new Corning products, including MetroCor fiber (slide 52/77, see corning.com, audio available at the same site). Installation costs were similar but the costs after 5 years of operations were projected to be 75% less with the new system compared to the old.
ILECs tend to have older systems while CLECs are usually installing new equipment. Operators of newly installed networks will generally have a 40% operational cost advantage, providing a strong impetus for all parties to invest in new equipment if they are to stay competitive (slide 74/77).
Even if all the dark fiber is lit, demand will rapidly exceed installed base within one or two years using even the most conservative projections (slide 72/77).
edit- I forgot the most important comment of all. Great report! Thanks. |
