NASD -- Nasdaq ...We are coming into an area of major
support for the much beleaguered NASD.
We are entering the Prime Time Winter Buying Season
for tech, from my perspective. This is the polar
opposite to me of the end of August when I had my
Prime time Selling Season sell signal.
As see in this post
Message 14305230
As you can see we have a major uptrend line coming in at about 2150 or so on the long-term semi-log scale chart. We also are approaching a .618 retracement of the entire move from the Oct 1987 crash low of 288.50 on the NASD up to the 3-10-2000 high of 5132.52 on the Nasd. 5132.52 - 288.50 (1987 crash low) =4844.02, now multiply that by .618 and that = 2993.60. 5132.52-2993.60= 2138.91. This is a Major Support Area. Back in July 1998 the NASD 2000 level was a major area or resistance and at the time thought to be very difficult to get through. It should now be seen as a very serious area of support.
A further Fibonacci relationship is show in the second chart, but that downside price objective is 2199.04. Between the Major Uptrend line, the .618 retracement (@ 2138) and the potential A = C showing equality at 2199, we have a meaningful cluster of support that should produce a bottom in the Nasd, It will likely take Fed Action, but that should be on the way.
geocities.com
(these charts are best viewed with a pixel setting of1280
by 1024, just right click once on an end part of your
computer desktop and click on Properties and then select
settings on the right and change the pixel setting)
NASD Nasdaq A = C at 2199
The wave of decline from 3-10-00 @ 5132.52 down to the May 24th low @4042.66 is the same length as this second leg of market weakness which started from the July 17th top of 4289.06 when we hit 2199.04. If we call this an A-B-C correction (most likely) or even a 1-2-3 in a 5 wave sequence, we will have reached a point of A = C or waves 1 and wave 3 equaling one another. We could also have calculated this relationship on percentage terms but the Market and the FED seem to want to see major speculative excesses washed out of the market.
I have a potential time turning point of tomorrow, which is a Gann time turning point day. We need not make our low this early and there is always a chance we'll just slice right through this 2130-2199 area, and even 2000, but I very strongly doubt it.
piteraperspectives.com
I am reading that their is still a lot of complancency and
that the VIX is still too low, and ideally we'll see broader
selling in the DJIA and SPX to generate some meaningful
capitualtion. the 2138 Nasd level is still another 200 points beneath today's close, and NASD 2000 is even further
south.
And maybe a DJIA down 550 or 600 day would help to create
the atmosphere of Fear and Loathing.
I know I am personally hearing it when I talk to a few of
my clients. And I'm trying to be a bit early on giving this
guidance so that people have a chance to get a game plan,
on what they want to do, and bigger hedge funds and market
participants need time to work out of shorts and into longs,
if in fact we are nearing the time and price points to do
this. Art Cashin hit the nail on the head today when he
said that "when the capitulation comes and things reverse,
there should be a stampede to the upside"
People should also be scaling back long US bonds and Notes
note positions in the shorter term.
John |
