the recession is just about to BEGIN, not end
the economy has a tremendous amount of momentum now
that will take at least six months to undo, repair, reverse
the central question is length of time for slowdown
and depth of damage, whether it goes negative
so the stock market must decide how long, how deep
it is voting now
if very brief, then market will "look beyond the chasm"
if not, if no confidence in Fed, then we are in more trouble
the distinction between a recession and a hard sudden slowdown is almost immaterial, an argumentative nicety
earnings are about to temporarily crumble
the market has lost confidence in our Federal Reserve
this country's stock market does not hold on to prices
and then plan on complete restoration
anyone who loses his or her job becomes depressed for a time
layoffs have begun in announcements
you heard it just like we did
it has started, and you seem to deny it
Aetna, GenlMotors, and countless others
they will become news items soon, accelerating
Naz is NOT signaling a depression, just a recession
Naz100 still has a 100 PEratio
and earnings are likely to be reduced in estimates
Q4 earnings have come down in estimation
the hardest reduction of any quarter in the last five years
that is signal enough of severe declines in earnings soon
a true bonafide recession is touch & go now
3 months ago everyone was blithely saying Soft Landing
now it looks like the best rosiest case scenario
the 50bpt hike in May will be hurting our economy bigtime
with 5-8% lower Christmas retail sales, what is that?
a slowdown?
dont think so
sounds worse than slowdown to me
consumer confidence has just fallen off the cliff
maybe when Q1 comes in negative, the denial will cease
meanwhile, how many times do we throw money at the market
only to see it disappear
$80M per minute !!!
sincerely, jim |
