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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: cnyndwllr who wrote (82270)12/21/2000 1:02:22 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
>> The tech long term outlook looks as good as ever with the exception of some internet models which had no barrier to entry and which had no revenue capability built into them. <<

Just skimmed your post. Will try to read it more later, but I STRONGLY disagree with the above statement. The earnings warnings we've seen so far are just the TIP of the iceberg. In my mind everything is connected. Remember early cycle/late cycle in the patch? Same analogy applies to the tech warnings imho. We've only seen 2 quarters of this are we are still trying to figure out how much the economy will slow (this won't be known for at least another 3-9 months at the earliest). Case in point VTSS hasn't warned yet, but they sell to LU which sells to the telecoms which are cutting back on spending, etc, etc. Now we've seen the WCOM and T's warn. We've seen LU and NT warn, but many of the optics plays have not. Also when companies start to warn it can take as much as a year or more to turn things around and fully factor in all the slowing. It's very rare that a company can warn in one quarter and accurately forecast the remainder of the year.

I speculate that given the degree of the Nasdaq correction that no one has a clue where and when the ultimate bottom will be. As such I'm more interested in finding a bottom that I can trade. It'll be found through sentiment and technicals more than valuation (at least on this go around).

Sorry if this sounds like gibberish...it's late and I'm going to bed.
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