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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: craig crawford who wrote (4399)	12/21/2000 5:04:48 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) of 57684

I also have an opinion on all this talk about how we can't be anywhere close to a bottom because of the surveys which show people are still 50-60% bullish. Hogwash. That doesn't seem jive with me anecdotally. There are very few bullish people left, and some of these strategists are very bearish, but just don't have the heart to admit they have been wrong all year and admit it. You don't need to see a 20% bullish reading to have a vicious bear market rally. All you need is some extremely oversold conditions and some short covering to get the rally started. The bull/bear sentiment surveys will be important for the REAL bottom in this market, which may be a long ways off. Like I have said before, I expect a strong rally into the new year that will ultimately fail. (I reserve the right to change my mind if the market can show strength at 3400-3500 though). Only then after many more months and yet ANOTHER leg down to who knows, maybe Nasdaq 1200 or lower, will be people be so fed up that bullish numbers may decline to 20-30%. That's how MAJOR bottoms are put in. There is no law that says you can't have a vicious bear market rally without bullish sentiment down at 20%. Take for instance just a few weeks ago. We had a 500 point or 20% rally in the Nasdaq with still high sentiment numbers. There is no reason why we can't have an even stronger rally now that prices are even lower and sentiment is worse and shorts are piling on. IF, and I do say if, Greenspan does some kind of intermediary rate cut in early January we will definitely have some serious short covering to fuel the rally. Because I'm sure that more shorts will be put out after a 150 or 200 point bounce in the Nasdaq. After all, people who have put out shorts everytime the Nasdaq has bounced a couple hundred points have been coining money, right? Well I'm sure they won't stop until they are proven wrong.

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